Application of multi criteria decision making to simulate uncertainties in construction projects

Abstract

Uncertainty certainly affects the performance of a construction project. It can be generalized as the difference between result and outcomes from usually expected values. The values can be considered to be time, quality and economy of the project depending upon the project needs. In construction project management, the effects of unidentified risks and uncertainties obstruct the project time, quality as well as its economy and upset the project management and thus its development. Identifying the uncertainty and quantitatively analysing the impact on the project performance can notably enhance the exactness, validity and reliability of a project plan. This study describes a methodology to systemize, model, and diminish uncertainty. In essence, Multi criteria decision making model is developed, which is useful for analysing uncertainties even with insufficient information or vague records. The study presents uncertainty assessment methodology based on multi criteria decision making, which is an effective integrated project management tool to deal with a subjective conclusion; that is used to configure a large number of uncertainties. It included a questionnaire survey; based on the data obtained, the probability of factors causing uncertainties were quantified using importance index and multi criteria decision making. The study is to suggest a decision support tool to quantify the probability of uncertainties in construction projects by using importance index incorporated with multi criteria decision making. Using this theory an uncertainty assessment model was suggested. The developed model can be utilized by the construction practitioners like contractors, consultants and clients while critical decision making.